Ni Pengfei, director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Academy of Social Sciences, attended the China News Agency’s 2023 China Economic Situation Analysis Meeting at the China News Agency in Beijing on the 17th. Photo by Tian Yuhao
Chinanews.com, January 18th, title: Ni Pengfei: Real estate has undergone deep and comprehensive adjustments and is approaching a reasonable range
China-Singapore Finance and Economics reporter Pang Wuji
Ni Pengfei, director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the 2023 China Economic Situation Analysis Meeting of the State Forum held by China News Agency on the 17th that all real estate indicators will decline in 2022, but the real estate industry will not “stall”. There are fluctuations in the middle, and sometimes the speed slows down. He believes that last year, real estate experienced a deep and comprehensive adjustment, but it is by no means a “hard landing”. Real estate is approaching a reasonable range.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics that day, in 2022, real estate development investment will be 13,289.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% from the previous year. From the sales point of view. In 2022, the sales area of commercial housing will be 1358.37 million square meters, a decrease of 24.3% over the previous year; the sales of commercial housing will be 13330.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.7%. Both supply and demand are relatively weak.
Ni Pengfei believes that the adjustment of the property market should be viewed dialectically. In the process of real estate market adjustment, certain risks will inevitably be brought. If the risks can be well controlled and gradually released, then the overall real estate adjustment is actually positive.
He pointed out that, from the total point of view, real estate is approaching a reasonable range. “We predict that the scale of real estate and housing additions in the next ten years will be around 1 billion to 1.2 billion square meters, matching the corresponding real estate investment scale.”
Regarding the current real estate risks, Ni Pengfei believes that local real estate risks have been controlled, but hidden dangers have not been eliminated. At present, the supply and demand situation of real estate is developing for the better, which provides conditions for controlling risks.
He believes that in 2023 and the future, if there is no impact of unexpected events, the overall trend of real estate will be weak volatility recovery.
While the overall recovery is weak, Ni Pengfei said that the regional market is facing differentiation. Some first- and second-tier cities have excessive demand and limited supply. They are expected to recover first, but third- and fourth-tier cities may face a longer period of adjustment. (Finish)