HomeSocialSix major crises facing China from the perspective of the new crown...

Six major crises facing China from the perspective of the new crown epidemic

Tips from FT Chinese Website: If you are interested in more content of FT Chinese Website, please search for “FT Chinese Website” in the Apple App Store or Google Play, and download the official application of FT Chinese Website.

In any country, there are many forms of crisis, but I generally do not involve, research and comment on those that have nothing to do with the economy and conflicts. Discussing the crisis, commenting on the crisis, especially talking about the awareness of major crises in a sensational way, is now generally “the business of Internet celebrities”, so this is not a job I am happy to do. I would like to explain that there is only one reason why these six major crises are reminded, explained, warned and commented on here. These are not new theoretical concepts and have nothing to do with “Internet celebrity business”. All these major crises are What I’ve talked about over the years, warned about, explained over and over, but frankly, basically a major crisis that never really got noticed.

It is worth warning that all these major crises will happen in China now and in the future, and those who have a little bit of knowledge and a little bit of information analysis must have heard of these crises, but I am afraid they are limited to “listening” Said”, because once these major crises do break out, the countless panicked faces will still be impressive. After all, the gap between “hearing” and “understanding” is more than thousands of miles away.

Of the six major crises I want to talk about here, the first crisis is the aging crisis.

Many people have “heard” about the aging crisis. I started researching and discussing this issue from the future of real estate in the last century. It has been a long time indeed, and now even the dullest “Internet celebrities” are talking about this issue. However, how much people know about China’s aging crisis and the future of China’s 264 million aging population (“Seven Census” data) is really completely unknown.

Now that the new crown epidemic has aroused people’s concern, there are countless discussions and information, sensational, horrifying, and unimaginable news. How could this be? Countless people must talk about the new crown virus, and it seems that the virus is the fault. In fact, these phenomena really have little to do with the new coronavirus. Another virus or other common diseases or epidemics are guaranteed to be the same disaster, or even a bigger disaster. For example, what is the difference between China now and China after the SARS epidemic? The virus was changed, but the nature of the result was the same, only worse, so this is not a matter of the virus. This is actually a concentrated outbreak of the aging crisis caused by the new crown virus epidemic. This is caused by the aging crisis, manifested as a run on public medical resources, and even a run on social resources, including funeral resources.

China is the country with the most serious aging crisis in the world. For a long time, we just pretended not to see it, pretended to “don’t know” or simply ignored its existence.

The second crisis is the food crisis.

I have also talked about the food crisis for many years, and it is a bit boring for me. It started from the “big development period” of real estate at the end of the last century, when land became a cash cow, who would still farm it? Chinese knowledge and ideas must all revolve around how to “exchange land for money”. However, as a big country, without the output of the land, the problem of food cannot be solved. So the land red line came out, but it was broken immediately. At the beginning, food could be bought from countries all over the world, but later it became clear that the problem became bigger and bigger. Things have developed to this day, and food has become an important issue in the Ukraine war. The United Nations must continue to intervene, and negotiations between major powers continue, thus achieving Turkey’s regional hegemony. Even so, I am afraid that in today’s China, not many people know “death from food”, and even fewer people know that after 1949, China was “trapped by food” for a full 30 years.

The third crisis is the financial crisis.

There are many people who study finance in China, but their understanding of the financial crisis is very superficial, because they have never seen it, experienced it, and experienced it. For Chinese financial scholars, the financial crisis is news in newspapers, mathematical models and statistics, and explanations in books and dictionaries, all of which are abstract, and they are all things from “preaching” to “preaching”. Therefore, when they talk about the financial crisis, they often go astray, and they often have to “according to this” and “according to that”. There are very few of their own things, their own thoughts, their own predictions and judgments.

The actual financial crisis includes both macro and micro; it includes both banks and households. Any crisis involving asset values ​​is a financial crisis. Therefore, a financial crisis is a crisis in asset values. If you look at it this way, is China now in a state of crisis with its debts constantly “exploding” and the family status of houses and other assets depreciating? This is actually obvious, and it will only get worse in the future. As for China’s financial macro-control capabilities, such as the monetary policy of raising interest rates, other countries can adopt it, but it is very difficult for China. Because China’s household debt is very large, raising interest rates will cause serious social turmoil. The wave of home buyers’ collective refusal to pay housing mortgage loans in 2022 is an obvious proof. This situation means that China’s financial crisis not only exists, but the crisis has deepened to the point where the People’s Bank of China has substantially lost the ability to use monetary policies such as raising interest rates to regulate and control.

The fourth crisis is the supply chain crisis.

This is a sequela of the era of globalization. China is a deep participant in globalization and the biggest beneficiary of globalization, but China has neither the ability nor the willingness to do more to maintain the globalization process. China’s ambiguous attitude towards such major events as the Ukrainian War that seriously shattered globalization has naturally further boosted anti-globalization in essence. From globalization to anti-globalization, in this huge transformation, the supply chains of all walks of life in the world will inevitably be restructured, reorganized and rebuilt. to massive bankruptcies and debts.

Therefore, the supply chain crisis is a major event that has a far-reaching impact on China, especially related to many major events. For example, China’s semiconductor chip issue some time ago, China is facing sanctions and restrictions from the United States, but this is not entirely due to geopolitical factors. There are also factors and considerations of supply chain restructuring in various countries. Everyone is eager to clear the door. , Rebuild a self-owned, reliable, and risk-resilient supply chain. It is precisely for this reason that the United States will do everything possible to bring TSMC to the United States for production.

Perhaps in such a process, only those countries and industries that deny anti-globalization and are confused and self-righteous will be severely damaged. In such a country, people don’t know how to get rich and don’t know how to get rich when they go bankrupt.

The fifth crisis is a geopolitical crisis.

From the 20th century to the 21st century, geopolitics has always been “heard about” by China, but they don’t know “what’s going on” at all. In short, it is all “other people’s business” and has little to do with oneself. There are not many people who study geopolitics and understand geopolitics in China. ” levels and stages. For a long time, China seems to really believe that China’s strength and rise has nothing to do with world geopolitics, and it really depends entirely on the hardworking Chinese themselves.

However, the ongoing Ukrainian war has opened a window for Chinese people who are not deeply involved in the world to see the complexity of world geopolitics. The world can change in an instant. The most frightening thing is that the power of geopolitics will force you to get involved, stand in line, choose, and passively accept everything that you thought would not appear. In the face of geopolitical crises, even moral norms have gone bankrupt, and the original belief in the industry, everything that was originally believed in, may be shattered, and even “invasion of other countries” is “reasonable”. It is worth noting that geopolitical crises are increasingly showing dominance, in many fields, or in all fields, transcending other professions, industries, industrial theories and historical practices, dominating everything transcendentally, causing their Great changes have taken place.

It may be too abstract to say so. Let’s take a simple analogy. In the face of geopolitical crises, there is actually no financial industry, no automobile industry, no wealth and assets, no financial accounting figures, and nothing that can be compared or compared with it. Something worthy of consideration and pause by geopolitical “calculators”, it has the power and superiority to overwhelm everything and smash all normal paradigms.

The sixth crisis is the urbanization crisis.

There may be many crises related to China’s economy and society, but many of them are self-inflicted, because the root of these crises is the abnormal development of China’s urbanization. China is a country with a very serious duality between urban and rural areas. Before urbanization, the urban population was less than 100 million, and the remaining nearly 700 million people were rural population. But in China at that time, cities were cities and villages were villages. Now China’s population has reached 1.4 billion, but the last urban population has disappeared, and all of them have become rural populations. This is why “Li Ziqi” can become an “Internet celebrity”. Therefore, China’s urbanization has only concentrated hundreds of millions of rural people into cities, turning cities into villages, and nothing else has changed. Therefore, the current Chinese cities are extremely difficult to manage, and the management methods are more and more like villages. In fact, cities have been transformed into a typical “village chief governance” model. Everything is simple, direct, and even Rough, even rational governance models such as the “pilot” that were emphasized at the beginning of the reform and opening up are extremely rare in Chinese cities today. Therefore, during the pandemic, local officials declared that the local area was in a “wartime state” at every turn. This lawless and rare phenomenon in the world is a reality and has its inevitability in China.

What’s more serious is that urbanization always requires a large amount of land for real estate, and real estate stands out, destroying other industries and turning into an economic crisis. Therefore, China’s economic crisis is just a superficial, deep-seated crisis of urbanization. Urbanization, after fueling a golden decade for the Chinese economy, can also lead to a decade or more of economic stagnation. In the end, there must be a comprehensive industrial crisis, and everyone will find that nothing will make money, so they have to do nothing. Lying flat, lying down, what’s new? That is absolutely inevitable. Under such circumstances, is there anything that the Chinese economy can make money from? There must be, and there are such enterprises, and there are such industrial sectors or industries, but all of these use privileges, and only by relying on privileges can we make money. Obviously, this way of making money has no bottom line at all, so it is clear where China’s anti-corruption will go.

To sum up, these major crises in China are actually nothing to discuss or debate. Although there have always been debates in reality, the meaninglessness of such debates lies in the fact that they do not understand and clearly understand People are actively denying the existence and development of these crises, and have seriously delayed the governance, mitigation, adjustment and reform of these crises. The final outcome is nothing more than an unspeakable social tragedy in the field of public medical resources today, guided by a new crown epidemic, just like the aging crisis.

Frankly speaking, I have not yet seen a future China that can successfully avoid these crises because of some successful reforms, some major and effective developments, some changes in humanistic quality, and some changes in social epistemology and values. break out. Therefore, I can say with certainty that, either now or in the future, these major crises will not only erupt, but also the shock waves of the crisis will be transmitted to the deep society, causing more and more realistic problems and conflicts. The ugliest side of Chinese society in the future will definitely be seen and shocked by the outbreak of these major crises, just like the unearthed cultural relics that continue to emerge.

The greatest misfortune of China lies in the shortness of epistemology; it lies in the inner hesitation and struggle, which has been the case since ancient times. Inflation has always been discussed separately, but is that a separate proposition? In fact, it is a true portrayal of the national economy. Please note that the national economy has always been a “national” economy, which is far more than just a “country” economy.

Final Analysis Conclusion:

The six major crises facing China are extremely obvious and realistic, and do not require in-depth discussion or pre-judgment. However, for a long time, the country lacks serious thinking and analysis of these major crises, and it is difficult to respond rationally. Sooner or later, these major crises will break out and be transmitted to the deep society.

(Note: The author is the founder of Anbang Think Tank. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor’s email address is bo.liu@ftchinese.com)

Related Articles

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here
Captcha verification failed!
CAPTCHA user score failed. Please contact us!

Popular Articles