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Weekly current affairs analysis: China and the US will cooperate and fight at the same time

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With the meeting between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen in Zurich this Wednesday, Sino-U.S. relations have once again become the focus of international attention. And all of the above happened against the background of a series of conflicts between China and the United States last year surrounding the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, high technology, and the mobilization of allies by the United States to contain China.

All of this shows that the struggle between China and the United States cannot prevent the close economic relations between China and the United States; at the same time, the goal of the United States’ struggle against China is mainly to maintain the United States’ global leadership, which is the core of everything.

Sino-U.S. Struggle Cannot Stop Economic Cooperation

A series of facts revealed by the Chinese official and international media this week shows that unless there is a war between China and the United States, it is impossible for the Sino-US economic relationship to be severed because of the game between China and the United States, and this economic relationship is already quite strong and stable. Objectively, no one can discard it.

The US Bloomberg reported this week that the trade volume between the US and China is expected to hit a new high, which shows that despite the US’s frequent China threat theory and the outside world’s concerns about the possible decoupling of the Chinese and US economies, the two largest economies in the world Economic ties remain strong.

Bloomberg’s basis is that the official data of the United States as of November indicates that by the time the final report is released on February 7, the total import and export between China and the United States will hit a record high in 2022, or at least very close to breaking the record. And Beijing has just released its full-year figures showing a record US-China trade volume of about $760 billion.

The 2022 Sino-US trade data released by Xinhua News Agency is 755.6 billion U.S. dollars. This is the official data released by Chinese official institutions.

Bloomberg’s commentary said: At a time when the two parties in the United States are unanimously advocating a tough approach to China, such trade figures are still staggering. The data suggest how deeply the two economies are still deeply intertwined, even as the U.S. tries to hold back China’s advance and China struggles to counter U.S. global influence.

The agency also analyzed the phenomenon. It quoted Doral, a senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution of the United States, as saying: China and the United States can maintain a very strong trade relationship while fighting a technology war. “It’s all about economics, and that’s what businesses want, which allows them to deliver goods and services to consumers.”

Bloomberg News believes that China is likely to have similar calculations, because China’s economic growth is export-oriented, and this is the key to improving people’s living standards and maintaining stability in China.

As for the U.S.’ efforts to prevent China from acquiring key semiconductor technologies, and the impact of the resulting Sino-U.S. technological hegemony struggle on trade, Bloomberg quoted Murray Hill Group, a private equity and venture capital firm focused on the semiconductor industry. According to the analysis of partner Burns: This may not necessarily lead to a greater trade rift, because the two countries have different goals-the United States seeks technological leadership, and China seeks technological autonomy.

The author believes that this point of view may not be complete, because China certainly needs technological autonomy under the background that it does not currently have world-class high-tech, but no country in the world will give up its technological leadership if possible, especially It is a big country.

The final conclusion is: Bloomberg quoted Wynn, a senior analyst at the American think tank Eurasia Group, as saying that although the debate about decoupling is raging, China and the United States will find it difficult, if not impossible, for them to completely cut off each other. economic ties”.

At the same time, the meeting between Liu He and Yellen in Zurich is also very interesting.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency released a message saying: Both sides believe that the recovery of the world economy is at a critical moment, and the two sides strengthen macro policy communication and coordination, and jointly respond to challenges in economic and financial fields, which is beneficial to China, the United States and the entire world. The two sides discussed issues related to deepening cooperation in the macroeconomic and financial fields. The two sides recognized the importance of sustainable financial cooperation and agreed to strengthen cooperation bilaterally and under multilateral frameworks such as the United Nations, G20 and APEC. The two sides agreed to continue to support the green and low-carbon development and economic transformation of emerging markets and developing countries. The Chinese side has expressed concern over the U.S. economic, trade and technological policies towards China, and hopes that the U.S. side will pay attention to the impact of these policies on both sides.

There is another message in the report: China welcomes Yellen to visit China at an appropriate time this year.

This is closely related to the upcoming visit of the US Secretary of State to China, which shows that the game relationship between China and the United States is developing in a controllable direction.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported that Yellen told Liu He in her opening remarks in front of reporters: “While we have differences and we will communicate them directly, we should not allow misunderstandings, especially those that come from lack of communication, to be unnecessary. worsen our bilateral economic and financial relations.” Liu He said: He is ready to work together to find common ground between China and the United States. “No matter how the situation changes, we should always maintain dialogue and communication,” he said.

The report of the meeting, released by the U.S. Treasury Department, said the two sides agreed that the U.S. and China would cooperate more on financing climate change and would work to support “the clean energy transition of developing countries.” The report also confirmed that Yellen plans to visit China in the near future and welcome her counterparts to the United States.

The Associated Press believes that this incident shows that although the tension between China and the United States over trade and Taiwan issues continues to heat up, the two sides are still committed to improving relations between the two countries.

The British “Financial Times” also commented: Although the tension between China and the United States on trade and the Taiwan issue continues to heat up, the two sides are still committed to improving relations between the two countries.

Against the backdrop of a general recession in the world economy and a possible recession next year, the United States’ approach to the game between the two countries is actually to separate general trade and economic relations from political and technological leadership. China also holds the same position , which is positive for the two countries and the world economy; at the same time, it can also make the political game between the two countries controllable.

Some countries are complicated

Regarding the current game model of Sino-US relations, which is a game of cooperation and struggle, some countries have complicated hearts and use the media to publicize the negativity of this model in order to influence China.

In an interview with Sputnik News Agency, Alexander Romanov, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, named the above-mentioned model for the United States to deal with the current Sino-US relations as “selective cooperation” in response to the recent easing of Sino-US relations. universal pattern. He said: “On the one hand, the Americans put pressure on China, intimidate them, and interfere in all possible things under any pretext. This naturally creates a risk of military conflict with China. Not only because of Taiwan, but also because of the US-Japan defense cooperation. New trends, as well as the increasing influence of the United States in South Korea, and the ‘Aukus Alliance’ (AUKUS). The latter brings a lot of problems, and China naturally has to worry about its own security. But the United States has come to avoid these problems. It At the same time, it is suggested to establish a conflict resolution mechanism. In the view of the United States, this model is absolutely ideal, that is, it can take any measures against the other party, and there is also a military cooperation mechanism, so as to investigate the facts and ensure pressure on the other party. And China It will not allow the situation to turn into a military crisis. It gives the United States a sense of absolute impunity and a tool to put pressure on China.”

In the end, Romanov pointed out directly: Only China can answer whether it is ready and to what extent it is ready for this cooperation model. “However, the American policy of containing China is very clear.” By now, his motives are obvious.

As far as the official Russian Academy of Sciences is concerned, facing the current situation in Ukraine and relations with Russia and the United States, it is natural for it to have the above-mentioned complicated thoughts and mentality. But it just ignores the fact that China and the United States are cooperating with each other while still fighting against it. China’s strategy has a theoretical basis and profound tradition. This is Mao Zedong’s United Front strategy of struggle, unity, and unity through struggle. Moreover, this is positive and positive for both China and the United States and the world.

(Note: The author is a policy researcher. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor’s email address is bo.liu@ftchinese.com)

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